Stalking the black swan research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility /

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Détails bibliographiques
Auteur principal: Posner, Kenneth A.
Collectivité auteur: ebrary, Inc
Format: Électronique eBook
Langue:anglais
Publié: New York : Columbia Business School Publishing, c2010.
Sujets:
Accès en ligne:An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view
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Table des matières:
  • Forecasting in extreme environments
  • Thinking in probabilities
  • The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling
  • Fighting information overload with strategy
  • Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance
  • Mitigating information asymmetry
  • Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis
  • The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling
  • Judgment.