Stalking the black swan research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility /
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| Hlavní autor: | |
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| Korporativní autor: | |
| Médium: | Elektronický zdroj E-kniha |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Vydáno: |
New York :
Columbia Business School Publishing,
c2010.
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| Témata: | |
| On-line přístup: | An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view |
| Tagy: |
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Obsah:
- Forecasting in extreme environments
- Thinking in probabilities
- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling
- Fighting information overload with strategy
- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance
- Mitigating information asymmetry
- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis
- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling
- Judgment.