Stalking the black swan research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility /
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| Autor principal: | |
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| Autor Corporativo: | |
| Formato: | Recurso Electrónico livro electrónico |
| Idioma: | inglês |
| Publicado em: |
New York :
Columbia Business School Publishing,
c2010.
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| Assuntos: | |
| Acesso em linha: | An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view |
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Sumário:
- Forecasting in extreme environments
- Thinking in probabilities
- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling
- Fighting information overload with strategy
- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance
- Mitigating information asymmetry
- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis
- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling
- Judgment.