Stalking the black swan research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility /
Bewaard in:
| Hoofdauteur: | |
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| Coauteur: | |
| Formaat: | Elektronisch E-boek |
| Taal: | Engels |
| Gepubliceerd in: |
New York :
Columbia Business School Publishing,
c2010.
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| Onderwerpen: | |
| Online toegang: | An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view |
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Inhoudsopgave:
- Forecasting in extreme environments
- Thinking in probabilities
- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling
- Fighting information overload with strategy
- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance
- Mitigating information asymmetry
- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis
- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling
- Judgment.