Stalking the black swan research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility /
保存先:
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| 団体著者: | |
| フォーマット: | 電子媒体 eBook |
| 言語: | 英語 |
| 出版事項: |
New York :
Columbia Business School Publishing,
c2010.
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| 主題: | |
| オンライン･アクセス: | An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view |
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目次:
- Forecasting in extreme environments
- Thinking in probabilities
- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling
- Fighting information overload with strategy
- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance
- Mitigating information asymmetry
- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis
- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling
- Judgment.