Ata uhi

Blindside how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /

"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed event...

Whakaahuatanga katoa

I tiakina i:
Ngā taipitopito rārangi puna kōrero
Kaituhi rangatōpū: ebrary, Inc
Ētahi atu kaituhi: Fukuyama, Francis
Hōputu: Tāhiko īPukapuka
Reo:Ingarihi
I whakaputaina: Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, c2007.
Ngā marau:
Emergency management > United States.
International relations.
Electronic books.
Urunga tuihono:An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view
Ngā Tūtohu: Tāpirihia he Tūtohu
Kāore He Tūtohu, Me noho koe te mea tuatahi ki te tūtohu i tēnei pūkete!
Rārangi ihirangi:
  • The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama
  • Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner
  • Cases: looking back
  • Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes
  • U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz
  • Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale
  • Cases: looking ahead
  • The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian
  • Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin
  • Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett
  • Forecasting
  • Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
  • Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert
  • Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop
  • What could be
  • Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook
  • Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett
  • American scenarios
  • A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama
  • Afterword / Francis Fukuyama
  • Contributors
  • Index.

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