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Blindside how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /

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"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed event...

Deskribapen osoa

Gorde:
Xehetasun bibliografikoak
Erakunde egilea: ebrary, Inc
Beste egile batzuk: Fukuyama, Francis
Formatua: Baliabide elektronikoa eBook
Hizkuntza:ingelesa
Argitaratua: Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, c2007.
Gaiak:
Emergency management > United States.
International relations.
Electronic books.
Sarrera elektronikoa:An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view
Etiketak: Etiketa erantsi
Etiketarik gabe, Izan zaitez lehena erregistro honi etiketa jartzen!
Aurkibidea:
  • The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama
  • Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner
  • Cases: looking back
  • Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes
  • U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz
  • Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale
  • Cases: looking ahead
  • The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian
  • Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin
  • Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett
  • Forecasting
  • Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
  • Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert
  • Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop
  • What could be
  • Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook
  • Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett
  • American scenarios
  • A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama
  • Afterword / Francis Fukuyama
  • Contributors
  • Index.

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