Blindside how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /
"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed event...
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| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C. :
Brookings Institution Press,
c2007.
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view |
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| 008 | 070709s2007 dcu sb 001 0 eng | ||
| 010 | |z 2007027757 | ||
| 020 | |z 9780815729907 (cloth : alk. paper) | ||
| 020 | |z 0815729901 (cloth : alk. paper) | ||
| 035 | |a (CaPaEBR)ebr10193747 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)614997175 | ||
| 040 | |a CaPaEBR |c CaPaEBR | ||
| 043 | |a n-us--- | ||
| 050 | 1 | 4 | |a HV551.3 |b .B57 2007eb |
| 082 | 0 | 4 | |a 363.34/7 |2 22 |
| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Blindside |h [electronic resource] : |b how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / |c Francis Fukuyama, editor. |
| 260 | |a Washington, D.C. : |b Brookings Institution Press, |c c2007. | ||
| 300 | |a vi, 198 p. | ||
| 500 | |a "An American Interest Book." | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index. | |
| 520 | |a "Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher. | ||
| 533 | |a Electronic reproduction. |b Palo Alto, Calif. : |c ebrary, |d 2013. |n Available via World Wide Web. |n Access may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries. | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Emergency management |z United States. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a International relations. | |
| 655 | 7 | |a Electronic books. |2 local | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Fukuyama, Francis. | |
| 710 | 2 | |a ebrary, Inc. | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://site.ebrary.com/lib/daystar/Doc?id=10193747 |z An electronic book accessible through the World Wide Web; click to view |
| 908 | |a 170314 | ||
| 942 | 0 | 0 | |c EB |
| 999 | |c 83945 |d 83945 | ||